Steps 1–3: Calculating Targets and Managing Spending
Step 1: Calculate the FIRE Number (The 25x Rule)
The mathematical foundation of early retirement is the “25x Retirement Rule,” which identifies the “FIRE Number” you need. Basically, you multiply your expected yearly expenses by 25 to find the portfolio needed to sustain your lifestyle without traditional employment income. Examples:
- $40,000/year expenses → $1 million portfolio
- $70,000/year expenses → $1.75 million portfolio
- $100,000/year expenses → $2.5 million portfolio
This gives a clear, objective baseline to aim for. Our post on how long you can expect $2m to last in retirement goes into more detail.
Step 2: Working out the Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR)
Once you know your FIRE Number, the next question is: how much can you spend each year without running out of money?
The “4% Rule” comes from research showing that, historically, taking 4% of your portfolio per year (adjusted for inflation) usually lasts 30 years. But if you’re retiring early, your retirement could last 40–50 years. In that case, financial planners often suggest being more cautious—only withdrawing 3–3.5% per year—to reduce the chance of running out.
Think of it like this: if your portfolio is $1 million, 4% means you could spend $40,000 a year safely. Retiring early? Better to plan for $30,000–$35,000 a year to play it safe.
Step 3: Audit Your Expenses
Next, take a close look at your future costs. Separate essentials like housing and food from optional spending, and include full healthcare costs before subsidies. Cutting unnecessary expenses reduces the portfolio you need and increases your chances of success.
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